Why is it important?

Foresight improves decision-making. The process produces greater awareness of drivers of change and forces clarity of values and choice.

What does success look like?

A product that identifies key drivers and uncertainties, scenarios mapping the decision space, criteria for choice, and a vision for 2035.

Key Metrics to measure

Key drivers of change

Key uncertainties

4 scenarios

Key criterion

Preferred future for 2035

Challenge brief

Foresight is a decision-making tool with distinct phases, with early steps informing later ones. In the initial phase, emerging trends documenting sources of change are identified. Futurists often use a rubric to assure a comprehensive perspective. STEEP (Societal/Demographic, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) is a common rubric.

A body of trends is analyzed to identify key drivers of changes. Implications of change are also considered.

Scenarios are used to map alternative configurations of uncertainties and to highlight decision points.

Informed by the values of the community, a set of criterion can be established by which to evaluate potential scenarios. With clear criterion, one of the scenarios can be constructed to communicate a preferred future around which future action can coalesce. This becomes the model to be implemented, and when backcasted to elicit key stepstones, a roadmap can be developed. Short term projects can be targeted to achieve key milestones.

The process should be iterated periodically in the future, to accommodate changing contexts, new innovations, and potential changes in priority.